Integrating climate change scenarios for assessing baseline scenario trends: contribution of CDS Toolbox
Résumé
Climate change is affecting the environment and ecosystems at all geographic scales. In view of the impacts of this phenomena having the possibility to increase in the future, worldwide experts and the European Commission argue that it becomes relevant to consider this phenomenon on the assessment of the baseline scenario evolution including the potential changes of ecosystem structures and functions, during the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. This baseline scenario, also called 'Do Nothing Scenario', requires the use of relevant data and models with the aim to estimate the dynamics of species and ecosystems for the future. Our article aims to introduce the CDS Toolbox that has been developed for this scope. This toolbox is based on two complementary models developed by ASES and CDS, namely the Species Distribution Model (SDM) and the Tlaloc downscaling model. The purpose of SDM is to estimate the potential spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, community of species, ecosystems and landscape units according to 22 relevant ecological variables. Tlaloc model allows downscaling climatic data at very high spatial resolutions (from 1000m to 5m) in order to provide climatic data at a relevant spatial resolution for decision-makers.
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